The biggest question in the bitcoin ecosystem remains the whether the four year cycle is still valid.
The four year cycle refers to the recurring pattern in bitcoin’s price behavior that has historically aligned with the halving schedule, where periods of strong appreciation are followed by major corrections, typically unfolding over roughly four years from peak to peak.
There are many arguments for why the four year cycle should not persist into 2026. U.S. exchange traded funds (ETF) have absorbed $57 billion in inflows, Strategy (MSTR) has effectively become a perpetual buyer, and early holders were distributing bitcoin at unprecedented levels above $100,000. Additionally, 2025 turned into a down year, despite the four year cycle suggesting it should have produced a parabolic top.
The counterargument is that the four year cycle has, so far, remained intact. Bitcoin peaked roughly 18 months after the halving (April 2024), which is the scheduled event that cuts the block subsidy paid to miners in half, reducing the rate of new bitcoin issuance. In October 2025, bitcoin reached a high of $126,000, following a substantial rally from the cycle low of $15,500 during the FTX collapse in November 2022.
Timing adds another layer of intrigue. Bitcoin’s local bottom occurred on Nov. 21, 2025 at $80,524, while the previous cycle low occurred on Nov. 21, 2022 at $15,460, the exact same calendar date.
January has also played a notable role in recent cycles. In January 2023, early in the current cycle, bitcoin topped locally just below $25,000 before falling to just under $20,000 in March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. January 2024 marked the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, after which bitcoin went on to post its low for the year at the end of the month, just below $40,000. January 2025 coincided with the inauguration of President Donald Trump and saw another local top around $110,000.
Now attention turns to January 2026. With a U.S. crypto market structure bill scheduled for a Jan. 15 markup hearing, the question is whether this moment marks another meaningful inflection point, potentially signaling a bottom or a top in the current bitcoin cycle.