Bitcoin has once again captured the attention of investors and traders alike after hitting a fresh all-time high earlier this week. But even as the leading cryptocurrency cools off near the $118,000 mark, analysts say there’s still room for one more push upward before July wraps up.
Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, believes that Bitcoin is entering a natural consolidation phase after its sharp rally. He described the current moment as the asset “pausing here for air,” adding that this is expected behavior following a breakout to new highs.
However, Harvey isn’t ruling out the possibility of another record-setting move before month’s end. In his view, a “continued slow melt-up” in Bitcoin’s price would represent the most optimistic scenario, provided a few key factors align over the coming days.
ETF Inflows and Treasury Accumulation Could Drive the Next Rally
For Bitcoin to climb even higher this month, Harvey points to the need for sustained inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. These investment products, which allow institutions and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset, have been performing well lately in terms of volume and net inflows.
In addition to ETF demand, Harvey notes that Bitcoin treasury firms — companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets as a reserve asset — continue to accumulate at a steady pace. This trend has become a cornerstone of institutional bullishness and signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
But perhaps the biggest unknown in the short-term equation is retail participation. While there are hints that interest from individual investors is on the rise, the data presents a mixed picture.
Retail Demand: Signs of Life, But Not Fully Back Yet
Coinbase’s recent climb to No. 137 on the U.S. Apple App Store is being viewed by some as an early signal of rising retail engagement. App rankings often serve as a loose proxy for consumer interest, especially during market rallies.
Still, Harvey cautions that the broader wave of retail demand — the kind that typically accompanies explosive bull runs — may not have arrived yet. Google Trends data supports this, showing relatively low global search volume for “Bitcoin,” even after the recent price jump.
If retail momentum picks up and adds to the ongoing ETF inflows and institutional accumulation, another record high in July could become a reality. Without that extra push, however, Bitcoin may remain range-bound for the short term.
Current Price Action and Market Sentiment
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $118,000, down slightly from its new all-time high of $122,884 reached earlier in the week, according to Nansen data. Despite this pullback, the broader market sentiment remains optimistic.
Harvey maintains that his base case scenario is a short consolidation phase at these levels. But he also mapped out a possible downside.
The Bear Case: A Drop Below $110K Is Still in Play
While the bullish setup remains intact for now, Harvey outlined a risk scenario where Bitcoin could retrace to below $110,000. In this case, he sees a possible 5–10% decline driven by profit-taking or weakness in broader equity markets.
The cryptocurrency market has often moved in tandem with tech-heavy equities, especially during times of high correlation. A downturn in the stock market could trigger a short-term “risk-off” move that spills into digital assets.
Cycle Watch: Could October Be the Peak?
Another voice weighing in on the bigger picture is crypto analyst Rekt Capital. Before Bitcoin pushed past its May high of $112,000 earlier this month, Rekt cautioned that the current cycle may only have a few more months of upward momentum left.
If historical patterns repeat — particularly the one from 2020 — the market could top out in October, roughly 550 days after the Bitcoin halving event that took place in April 2024. Halving cycles have historically played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements, and many traders are using that framework to guide their long-term outlook.
Outlook for the Rest of 2025
Despite the short-term uncertainties, Harvey remains confident that Bitcoin will continue trending higher through the end of the year. He emphasized that the overall structure of the bull market remains strong, supported by institutional adoption, new capital inflows, and growing use cases.
Whether or not another all-time high comes this July, the message from analysts is clear: Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory remains upward, and the current dip may simply be a pause before the next leg of growth.
For investors watching closely, the coming weeks could provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s ability to sustain its historic momentum — or whether a broader cooldown is on the horizon.
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