Key Takeaways
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Prediction markets are increasingly seeing Ethereum surging to $5,000 as plausible in 2026.
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The Ethereum Foundation pointed to 2025 as a breakout year for adoption.
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Bullish executives have increased, but not all bets have turned out well.
Prediction markets are increasingly reflecting optimism around Ethereum’s long-term price trajectory, with traders positioning for significant upside into 2026 as sentiment grows in the network.
Across leading platforms, contracts tied to Ethereum’s future highs show rising probabilities for substantially higher valuations, highlighting renewed bullish sentiment among market participants.
On Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, traders are currently assigning a 40% probability that Ethereum will reach $5,000, with smaller but notable odds attached to even higher price thresholds.
Meanwhile, crypto-native platform Polymarket is also betting on price levels well above current prices.
Over 40% of traders on Polymarket bet Ethereum will reach $5,000 in 2026, while just 24% bet it will reach over $6,000.
Higher-end outcomes—such as $7,500, $8,000, and $10,000—remain low-probability but are still seeing active trades, with 11% of traders betting on a price extending beyond $10,000.
The bullish bets come as the Ethereum Foundation has described 2025 as a pivotal year that strengthened Ethereum’s fundamentals heading into 2026.
In a year-end reflection, the Foundation stated that Ethereum had “solidified itself as the secure foundation for our growing digital civilization.”
According to the Foundation, key milestones included more than $99 billion in DeFi total value locked, stablecoin settlement volumes exceeding $18.8 trillion, and increasing institutional participation through ETFs and onchain asset issuance.
Transaction costs on Layer 2 networks also fell below one cent, while major protocol upgrades such as Pectra and Fusaka improved data capacity.
“Ethereum became a critical platform for global coordination, powered by sovereign digital identity,” the Foundation wrote, adding that Ethereum is “no longer just emerging technology” but is becoming “the scaffolding of our digital civilization.”
Several prominent industry figures have reinforced the long-term bullish narrative around Ethereum.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, has argued that Ethereum’s upside potential is best understood through its price ratio relative to Bitcoin.
In a recent message to BitMine shareholders, Lee said Ethereum’s valuation could expand significantly if Bitcoin reaches his long-term targets.
“This is why we think the price ratio of Ethereum to Bitcoin is really the most important to watch,” Lee said.
Under BitMine’s base-case scenario of Bitcoin reaching $250,000, Lee outlined a wide range of possible Ethereum outcomes.
“If Bitcoin gets to $250,000, which is our view, and Ethereum trades at its eight-year average ratio, that’s $12,000 Ethereum,” he said.
Lee added that, in more aggressive scenarios, a $1 million Bitcoin could imply $250,000 Ethereum, assuming historical relative pricing holds.
Not all bold forecasts, however, have played out.
Kain Warwick, founder of Infinex, has acknowledged the outcome of a $50,000 public wager after predicting Ethereum would reach $25,000 by the end of 2025, a level it ultimately failed to achieve.
The bet stemmed from a public exchange with Kyle Samani, managing partner at Multicoin Capital, who questioned whether such a rapid recovery was realistic.
After the deadline passed, Samani wrote simply: “Time to pay up.”
At the time of reporting, Ethereum was trading around $3,212, well below the levels implied by the most aggressive forecasts.
From a technical standpoint, CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju said Ethereum is approaching a key inflection point.
He noted that ETH is pressing against the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart—a structure that often precedes a sharp directional move.
“If ETH holds this momentum and breaks the triangle to the upside, the next likely target sits around $3,510,” Olanrewaju said.
He added that sustained bullish pressure could extend the move toward $4,060.
However, he cautioned that a downside break could quickly invalidate the bullish setup.
“In that case, ETH could drop toward $2,619,” he said, warning that the technical structure leaves little room for error if selling pressure returns.
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