Ethereum is facing renewed price pressure, but traders appear unfazed. Despite losing more than 5% in the past week and hovering near $4,400, Ethereum’s open interest (OI) across Binance remains steady at around $8.4 billion. The unusual stability of derivatives positions is fueling speculation that a rebound may be on the horizon, even as spot market flows point to ongoing selling pressure.
Price Decline Meets Derivatives Resilience
Over the last seven days, Ethereum (ETH) has slipped 5.5%, with an additional 1.4% decline recorded in the past 24 hours. Typically, sharp pullbacks lead to a significant drop in open interest as traders unwind leveraged positions and exit risky bets.
This time, however, the picture is different. According to data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s Ethereum open interest has held firm above $8.4 billion. This suggests that leveraged traders are not rushing to exit their positions, signaling either expectations of an eventual recovery or limited conviction that ETH will continue falling deeper.
In fact, open interest contraction has slowed notably. On Tuesday, OI dropped just 3.4% in 24 hours, compared with a steeper 6.25% decline earlier in the week. Analysts interpret this moderation as a sign that aggressive deleveraging may be losing steam.
Buyers Absorbing the Pressure
Despite the resilience in derivatives, market sentiment remains cautious. Binance’s Net Taker Volume—a measure of buyer versus seller aggressiveness—has consistently stayed negative, ranging between -1.08 billion and -1.11 billion. This indicates that sellers remain active, pushing prices lower.
Yet, the stability in OI suggests that buyers are quietly absorbing this pressure rather than retreating completely. Instead of a wave of capitulation, ETH markets are showing signs of silent accumulation.
Exchange Withdrawals Signal Long-Term Confidence
Adding to this cautiously bullish outlook is the trend in spot market activity. Daily withdrawals from exchanges such as Binance and Kraken have regularly exceeded 120,000 ETH.
Large-scale withdrawals typically reduce sell-side liquidity, making it harder for prices to fall significantly without strong selling momentum. While it’s unclear whether these withdrawals represent institutional custodial moves or retail investors moving funds to cold storage, the effect is the same: fewer coins available on exchanges, tighter supply, and a reduced risk of extended sell-offs.
This trend aligns with past accumulation phases, where long-term investors prepare for a potential rally by pulling assets off exchanges.
Bearish Patterns or Bear Trap?
From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s price chart is showing a head-and-shoulders formation, a classic bearish setup that typically signals further downside risk. This has surge concern among traders who fear a breakdown below $4,000.
However, not everyone is convinced this bearish pattern will play out. Some analysts argue it could instead form one of the “biggest bear traps” of the year. According to crypto strategist Johnny Woo, the $3,800–$4,100 zone is a critical support range to watch.
If Ethereum holds this level, sidelined traders who positioned themselves for a deeper drop may be forced to re-enter at higher prices. That dynamic could create buying pressure strong enough to fuel a reversal.
“Uptober” Narrative Adds Fuel to Optimism
Adding to the bullish speculation is the seasonal trend known as “Uptober.” Historically, October has often brought relief rallies to the cryptocurrency market, following September’s tendency to deliver weak performance.
If history rhymes, Ethereum’s current weakness could simply be setting the stage for a strong recovery next month. A break above $4,500 would likely shift sentiment rapidly and attract momentum traders back into the market, reigniting hopes of a push toward $5,000.
The Road Ahead for Ethereum
Ethereum’s near-term outlook remains delicately balanced. On one hand, persistent selling pressure and negative net taker volumes suggest that bearish sentiment has not fully faded. On the other, strong open interest, steady exchange withdrawals, and a resilient support base provide evidence that long-term buyers are holding firm.
As the final quarter of 2025 approaches, Ethereum traders are weighing two possible scenarios. Either the bearish head-and-shoulders formation plays out, dragging prices below $3,800, or it turns into a bear trap that fuels the next leg higher.
If buyers continue to absorb sell-side flows and derivatives positioning remains stable, Ethereum could be preparing for a counterattack. With October historically favorable for crypto markets, the potential for a surprise rebound is firmly on the table.
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