ETH/USD Weekly Chart (Bitstamp) – Source: TradingView
The $2,800 is still the key structural support to watch. ETH has managed to stay above this mark, and this bounce coincides with the rise in transaction volumes cited earlier.
We envision a move to $3,900 if bullish momentum picks up steam, but we have not yet seen any concrete signals that this is the case.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has to rise above the 14-period moving average to confirm a buy signal, in which case ETH may start its journey to this key area of resistance. This would imply a 24% upside potential in the near term, for starters.
That said, if we get a bearish breakout below this mark, ETH could drop by around 42% to $1,600. This is in line with how bearish crossovers below the 100-week EMA have resulted in the past, but there have also been instances in which the move has been a false positive.
In such cases, bear traps have ended up propelling the token to higher highs. Hence, we have these two scenarios on the table. For now, the odds favor bulls unless a break below $2,800 occurs.
Meanwhile, $3,900 is a conservative target, as these same historical patterns support a move to $5,000 at least if positive momentum accelerates.