Ethereum has entered a crucial phase in its price structure, rising cautiously after a steep 11.5% decline that shook the market earlier this week. The asset has recovered around 2.5% since the sell-off and is now moving just above the $3,230 region. Despite the intraday improvement, the overall 24-hour change still reflects a near 6% loss, reminding traders that confidence has not yet fully returned.
Even so, Ethereum has printed a bullish harami pattern on the daily chart — a reversal formation that often indicates selling pressure is cooling down while buyers gradually regain strength. This development has energized price watchers, but market analysts warn that the pattern alone does not guarantee a sustained trend unless other supporting factors emerge.
Harami Pattern Presents an Opportunity — But a Repeat of the Past Is Still Possible
The bullish harami has formed after a large red candle was followed by a smaller green candle that sits entirely within the previous day’s trading range. Such a setup generally signals the slowing of downward momentum and often appears before short-term price recovery attempts.
However, experienced Ethereum traders remember a similar pattern that appeared on November 5. The price initially reacted upward, but buyers lost control quickly, and the short-term relief faded into another downturn. Because of that failed development, the current setup carries higher scrutiny. The crypto market is now watching whether this time buying activity continues long enough to confirm the reversal.
If momentum expands gradually, the harami may provide the foundation for a broader bounce. If not, Ethereum could repeat the November scenario where the signal expired without material progress.
Large Holders Limit the Strength of the Setup
One major factor preventing early optimism is whale participation. While reversal patterns rely heavily on increased demand, data from Glassnode shows that the number of wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH has declined again. The 30-day change in these “mega-whale” addresses has returned to the same negative reading recorded on November 8.
Wallet counts in this category have been falling since November 2. Although there was a short uptick between November 6 and 11 during a minor recovery phase, the downward trend resumed quickly. This weakness in large-holder conviction appeared around the same time Ethereum recorded a bearish crossover — a structure that many analysts previously flagged as a risk.
The drop in whale ownership does not erase the bullish harami, but it reduces confidence behind it. While the chart signal points to improving momentum, reduced accumulation from high-volume wallets creates hesitation about how long buying interest can last.
Key Levels Will Decide Whether Ethereum Extends the Recovery or Loses Momentum
Technical levels now play a crucial role in determining whether the reversal expands or fades. The first meaningful test sits around $3,333 — a price barrier that repeatedly rejected short recoveries earlier this week. Breaking cleanly above that marker would confirm an early shift in favor of the bulls.
However, the more significant test lies near $3,650. Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmap shows that the region between $3,638 and $3,667 contains one of the largest supply clusters in recent months. More than 1.5 million ETH last changed hands in that zone, meaning a high concentration of traders have break-even expectations there. As a result, this region may create strong friction during upward movement, and it will take firm buyer conviction to move past it.
A sustained daily close above $3,650 would deliver the strongest sign that the harami reversal has succeeded and that Ethereum has entered a more reliable recovery structure. If this happens, market sentiment could improve sharply and liquidity may rotate back toward the asset.
Where the Pattern Fails
The bullish setup weakens significantly if Ethereum loses footing at $3,150. This level has supported price during multiple corrective phases and currently serves as the short-term floor for the reversal attempt. Falling below it would signal that buyers lack momentum and that the harami has failed to transition into a meaningful trend change.
If the decline accelerates and Ethereum drops sharply below $3,050, the reversal pattern becomes fully invalidated. In that scenario, sellers would regain dominance, similar to what occurred after the failed pattern earlier in the month.
Market Conditions Suggest Patience Is Key
Market sentiment surrounding Ethereum is currently divided. The chart pattern shows clear potential for a bounce, and the presence of a technical reversal suggests the worst of the recent selling pressure may be cooling. However, the drop in 10k-ETH wallet exposure contradicts that optimism by signaling hesitation among the largest market participants.
The result is an environment where both price directions remain plausible. If the bullish harami evolves into consistent upward movement and price reaches beyond $3,333 — and especially above $3,650 — Ethereum could transition into a broader recovery phase that attracts fresh liquidity. If buy pressure does not expand fast enough, the reversal setup will weaken and may dissolve into another corrective leg.
For now, Ethereum traders and long-term investors are taking a cautious approach. The current setup offers promise, but everyone is watching the price behavior around the two major resistance zones to determine whether the reversal will take root or fade like the previous attempt.
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