Global merchandise trade will decelerate less sharply this year than the World Trade Organization predicted six months ago, but faces a deeper slowdown if war in the Middle East keeps energy prices high for a sustained period.
The volume of goods trade is forecast to rise by 1.9%, compared with the WTO’s prediction in October for a 0.5% gain in 2026 and markedly weaker than a 4.6% jump in 2025 that was attributed to AI and a smaller-than-expected drag from US tariffs.