Good News for Retirees: 2026’s Social Security Bump Could Be Bigger Than Expected

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Social Security retirees are going to get a raise in 2026, which is good news since many seniors rely on their benefits to help them cover the bills. There’s some even better news as well: The benefits bump may be bigger than initially expected, and it may be a larger benefits increase than the one seniors got last year. 

Here’s the raise that retirees may be in line for next year, along with some details on how these early projections for the 2026 COLA are made and why estimates of the projected future benefits increase keep getting bigger. 

Experts have increased their estimate for the 2026 COLA

According to the Senior Citizens League, a senior advocacy group, the 2026 COLA is projected to come in at 2.6%. The Senior Citizens League put out this estimate after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI-W numbers in July for the month of June. 

CPI-W stands for Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. It is a price index that tracks the costs of a basket of goods and services. The Social Security raise, or Cost of Living Adjustment, that retirees get is based on CPI-W data for the third quarter of the year. Social Security looks at year-over-year increases in CPI-W for July, August, and September, and Social Security beneficiaries get a raise equal to the average percentage increase in prices during this three-month period. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI-W data for June, and while this month’s numbers aren’t factored into the official formula since it’s not third-quarter data, the numbers confirm an ongoing trend. They show inflation has been climbing. That’s why the Senior Citizens League raised its projections for the 2026 COLA from 2.5% to 2.6%. When the CPI-W numbers came out, they showed a 2.6% annual increase in costs from June 2024 to June 2025.

Since inflation has been steadily going up, and this month is no exception, it’s not a surprise that the Senior Citizens League has been gradually increasing its COLA estimate throughout this year.

The 2026 COLA could be bigger than the 2025 COLA

If the Senior Citizen League’s prediction stands and the COLA is 2.6% next year, that will be a slightly larger benefit increase compared to the one retirees got this year. In 2025, retirees collecting Social Security got 2.5% more in their checks. 

Still, the raise isn’t a huge one, given that data has shown the value of buying power is eroding. That’s happening due to the benefits formula not working very well since seniors spend differently from urban wage earners and clerical workers.  Many of the things seniors spend the most money on, such as healthcare and housing, have seen prices increase far faster than inflation.

Of course, these are just preliminary projections. Retirees and others collecting Social Security will not know the actual COLA until the third quarter data comes in and the official numbers for all three of the key months become available in October. If inflation keeps trending up, the COLA projections are likely to continue to increase. And, while that’s not necessarily a good thing for seniors who have to cope with high inflation, at least retirees will see their Social Security checks grow by a larger amount to give them a little bit of help in a tough economy.

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