For a while there, it looked like Michael Saylor’s bitcoin-hoarding business software firm had cracked some secret code.
Investors piled into the stock, forked over more money during the firm’s many debt and equity raises over the years, and generally were amenable to Saylor’s pitch that piling up ever more bitcoin was a winning strategy.
That could be a tougher pill to swallow amid the deepening crypto winter of the last few months.
Michael Saylor’s iconic bitcoin treasury has tumbled amid the dramatic plunge in the token’s price, and the volatility since the October peak is being reflected in earnings.
Strategy reported a $12.4 billion net loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, with its fortunes slipping as bitcoin sank deeper into its bear market.
The price of bitcoin jumped 7% on Friday after an intense bout of selling earlier in the week, but the token is still down around 46% from its recent peak and is trading below $70,000. That’s a key psychological threshold the token recently dipped below for the first time since 2024. Meanwhile, Strategy stock also jumped on Friday as the risk-off rout took a breather and the hardest hit assets rallied, but it’s down sharply from recent highs.
Strategy has come under closer scrutiny from investors in recent months amid fears that the firm could be forced to sell some of its bitcoin as prices keep dropping. Late last year, Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, said the firm could sell bitcoin as a “last resort” if mNAV, a measure of Strategy’s stock price relative to the value of its bitcoin holdings, dropped below one. The ratio stands at around 1.13, according to the latest information on Strategy’s website.
Strategy isn’t necessarily under financial stress, Nic Puckrin, a digital asset analyst at Coin Bureau, told Business Insider. The crypto treasury has billions in cash reserves, and Strategy has several options to get more cash if needed, though sentiment among its investors is “obviously rock bottom.”
“The crypto sell-off is hitting Strategy hard. There’s no denying it,” Puckrin said.
Here are three charts that show how bitcoin’s bear market has affected Strategy.
1. Strategy stock has tumbled 70% from its all-time high
Shares of Strategy are deep in bear-market territory. The stock is down about 70% from its all-time high in July of last year.
2. The average cost basis of its bitcoin holdings has soared
As bitcoin has plunged, Strategy’s cost basis—or the average price paid per token—has climbed. Strategy’s average cost per bitcoin was $76,052 at the end of the fourth quarter. That’s around $9,000 above bitcoin’s current price.
The firm has amassed a trove of 713,502 bitcoin, or around 3% of the crypto’s total supply.
3. Operating losses have soared to $17 billion
Strategy recorded an operating loss of $17.4 billion in the fourth quarter. Prior to that, it recorded operating income of $3.9 billion in the third quarter and $14 billion in the second quarter.
Strategy did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.
Saylor, who has touted the value of bitcoin for years, has continued to affirm his confidence in the crypto amid even its sell-off. In recent posts on X, he’s told his followers to “HODL,” a mispelling of HOLD and sometimes an acronym for “hold on for dear life,” and described volatility in bitcoin as “Satoshi’s gift to the faithful.”
Others have been far less optimistic amid the crash this week. Michael Burry, the famed investor from “The Big Short,” predicted a series of “sickening scenarios” in the event that bitcoin’s crash continues.
Meanwhile, other forecasters this week have said the sell-off could have much further to go if past bear-market declines are any indicator. Stifel said the plunge could take bitcoin as low as $38,000.