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ZDNET’s key takeaways
- Bitcoin gains can vanish quickly, even after major rallies.
- Political hype can move crypto prices, but rarely sustains them.
- A small stake limits risk in a market driven by speculation.
From the perspective of my vast Bitcoin holdings, it’s as if 2025 never happened. My Bitcoin stunt stash dropped from $99.92 at the end of 2024 to $99.69 now. Certainly that’s better than its lowest point, which was $17 back in 2023. To be fair, the value did double over the $50 I put in, but while there was a big rally over the summer, all of those gains have evaporated since then.
Turns out that when the President of the United States is bullish on a fake currency, it takes off. At least for a while. Then, when the US Congress declares “crypto week,” cybercurrency speculators get that warm, squishy feeling that makes them think good things are about to happen in their imaginary world of bits as bucks. Valuations increased again, but then fell back down to their 2024 levels.
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In this article, I’m continuing my tradition of discussing how much money I gained on my vast Bitcoin holdings each January.
To put this into perspective, let me define what I mean by “vast.” On Jan. 1, 2022, after a celebratory New Year’s Eve filled with whatever was playing on BritBox that evening, I decided to take the plunge and invest my entire PayPal account balance into Bitcoin.
PayPal, you see, had just announced that it would become a Bitcoin wallet provider. That meant all I had to do was give up even more personal identifying information than I normally do to PayPal, along with my PayPal balance, and I would become the proud owner of what was then slightly more than 0.001 of a Bitcoin.
My start with Bitcoin
During the process of setting up my Bitcoin investment, I regained some degree of self-control and perspective. Rather than putting my entire PayPal balance of $64 into Bitcoin, I decided to invest a more sane $50 (plus the $1.15 in fees PayPal demands for its always-so-helpful participation in any transaction).
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That self-control came in clutch when, after just a week, my holdings dropped almost 14%.
My ride off the cliff that was Bitcoin wasn’t over — not by a long shot. Two weeks later, my holdings dropped by another 14%, bringing the total to 28% below what they were at the beginning of that month.
By that point, I felt it was my responsibility to tell the world that this fake currency was clearly a bad idea and that investing in it was bonkers.
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I decided my best course of action was to stop looking at it, and I left my account to plummet earthward until the six-month anniversary of my original purchase. Then I decided to take a look.
Bad idea. My investment was down 60% from its original position. Can you imagine how bad this would have felt if I’d invested thousands or tens of thousands of dollars?
There was no sign of a rebound. The only thing Bitcoin was giving me was a subject to write about and justification for complaining and mocking.
I waited. And mocked. And complained.
January 2023
And then, on Jan. 1, 2023, the annual tradition of reporting to you about my Bitcoin investment became formalized. I lost less in the second half of 2022, but by January 2023, I was still down a whopping 66%.
Yeah, by this point, I was glad I hadn’t jumped on the whole Bitcoin bandwagon back in the day. I chose not to look at the value again until New Year’s Day of 2024.
January 2024
Amazingly, the value of my holdings from the previous July had almost doubled. Sadly, it was still underwater.
All of that brings us to New Year’s Day 2025. While I didn’t look at my investment throughout 2024, I had been very aware of the news.
New Year’s Day 2025
First, there was the Bitcoin halving process. A scarcity algorithm is built into Bitcoin. Every time a new 210,000 blocks are mined in the blockchain, Bitcoin’s reward to miners is reduced.
This happens roughly every four years. On April 19, 2024, the block reward was reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The idea is that this reduces the incentive for mining, thereby putting less currency into the market and increasing overall value.
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But the big event, the one that caused Bitcoin to surge in value, was the election. The overall value for a single Bitcoin was in the $60K range all through 2024, even after the halving event. It was at $69,494 on Nov. 1.
On Nov. 6, it jumped to $75K. By Dec. 1, it was at $97K.
President Trump is very bullish on cryptocurrency, and back in January, that was a very big thing, according to Reuters. Since the value of the coin is based entirely on the value traders put into it, Reuters believed the then-incoming president’s pro-crypto stance fueled the rise in currency prices overall, and Bitcoin’s in particular.
My Bitcoin holdings, as of about 5 p.m. back on Jan. 1, 2025, were up to almost $100 (it was at $99.92). That’s almost double what I invested. Remember that though I invested $50, PayPal took $1.15 in fees. So my profits are up 95% instead of just about 100% because of those fees.
Congress’s Crypto Week 2025
So what’s the market doing now? Well, as of about 6 a.m. PT on July 14, my holdings are up a whopping 150.18% from my original investment.
That puts my $50 (plus fees) investment at $127.97, at least for now. Here’s another pretty chart.
January 2026
Here’s where we are on Jan. 14, 2026. The value is still up from my original $50 (plus fees) investment, but lost all its midyear gains. Its value is within pennies of what it was 12 months ago. I’m still above water, which is good. But all the Washington-generated excitement seems to have gone out of the cryptocurrency. At least I didn’t buy in July, right? That would have been a bummer.
Is Bitcoin a good investment?
So, does this mean I’m now bullish on Bitcoin? No more than any other investment that can crater and skyrocket according to the whims of the market, no.
Look, I’m not qualified to make investment recommendations. But I’m still convinced that cryptocurrency is nuts. All cryptocurrency is, is an agreement among a bunch of people to assign an arbitrary value to an algorithm. That seems like crazy talk.
On the other hand, that’s our entire economy, isn’t it? We assign money a value and agree upon it, whether it’s dollars or even gold. Stocks have value because of how a bunch of people behave when buying and selling them. Even algorithms have value. Microsoft, for example, has been making bank for years off of Office revenue, and all Office really is, fundamentally, is a collection of algorithms.
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I’ll tell you this: I’m not going to be increasing my stake in Bitcoin. I’m not putting any more than my original $50 (plus fees) into the cryptocurrency. I’m just not into that kind of gambling. But I live in the same society and economy that all of you do, so I’ll be spending every workday doing my best to make dollars — which land in an account electronically.
I’ll then push some other buttons on screen to order groceries via Instacart or products via Amazon. So, yeah, in many ways my personal experience of real dollars isn’t all that much different in practice than that of Bitcoin except more entities accept dollars than do Bitcoin.
Will Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies replace the dollar? It’s possible. The world is just wacky enough to do it. Think about it this way: Before the 1950s, we didn’t really use credit cards. Now they’re necessary for just about every non-face-to-face transaction and most face-to-face transactions, as well. So, will crypto go mainstream? Check back with me next New Year’s Day.
What do you think? Have you invested in Bitcoin or other crypto? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
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