Is Invest 91L headed toward Texas? See spaghetti models, current path

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The National Hurricane Center expects Invest 91L to strengthen into a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves west across the Atlantic.

AccuWeather forecasters said Sept. 5 that 91L has a “high risk of organizing into a full-fledged tropical storm and then strengthening into a hurricane before reaching the Caribbean by the middle of next week.”

The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Gabrielle.

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Spaghetti models for Invest 91L: See possible paths

Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.➤ Track Invest 91L

Where is Invest 91L headed? Track path

Recent satellite imagery suggests the system continues to slowly become better organized with shower and thunderstorm activity along its eastern periphery, the National Hurricane Center said.

Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development of the system and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Residents in the Lesser Antilles and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system as it approaches from the east by the middle of next week.

Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60%.
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90%.

It is still too early to determine whether it will pose a threat to Texas, but officials encourage residents to always be prepared for a storm and to closely monitor conditions.

The system is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle to later part of next week, which also happens to coincide with the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10.

Will Hurricane Lorena impact the Texas coast?

Hurricane Lorena was undergoing weakening in the Pacific Ocean as a Category 1 storm the morning of Sept. 4 but is still poised to bring heavy rainfall and the chance of flash flooding to parts of the Southwestern United States, forecasters said.

Although Lorena’s center will stay well south and west of Texas, its remnant moisture is expected to move northeast, interacting with local weather systems and producing scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms.

The greatest threat in Texas is across El Paso and Far West Texas, though other areas of the state could see 1 to 5 inches of rain, raising the potential for isolated flooding. Central and South Texas could expect to see rainfall from lingering moisture this weekend into early next week.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

How does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season compare to last year in Texas?

For Texas, the season has been relatively quiet so far — a sharp contrast to mid-August last year, when the state was already six weeks past the final storm to impact the state, which saw the two earliest storms of the 2024 hurricane season.

In late June 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto threatened the Texas, and by early July, the Lone Star State was tracking one one of the hardest-hit hurricanes of the season — Hurricane Beryl, which became the earliest Category 5 storm on record before making its third landfall near Matagorda. After that, the remainder of the season was relatively mild for Texas, with no other storm threatening the state.

No storms have directly affected Texas this season, but forecasters warn the season is ramping up as it nears its peak months in August and September.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period,” NOAA recommends.

Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. She can be reached at baddison@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Will Invest 91L become Tropical Storm Gabrielle? See spaghetti models