Wall Street’s biggest bank has a clear message to sell this flying car stock. At the same time, billionaire investor Cathie Wood is quietly increasing her stake in the same company, committing millions of dollars to its long-term vision. That company is Joby Aviation (JOBY), a maker of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft — a sector that many see as the future of urban air mobility.
This clash between JPMorgan’s caution and Wood’s conviction raises the question of whether investors should bet on disruption or play it safe.
Following Joby’s Q4 earnings, JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson lowered his price target on JOBY to $7 from $8, while maintaining an “Underweight” rating. Although the firm acknowledged “steady execution” in Q4, Peterson warned that Joby’s cash burn is likely to trend higher, particularly as the company scales manufacturing and moves closer to commercialization. The analyst also stated that Joby’s longer-term success appears to be priced into the shares, limiting near-term upside.
In the fourth quarter, Joby reported $31 million in Q4 revenue, up 35% from the third quarter. Revenue included $21 million from Blade operations and $10 million from others, including $8 million coming from one-time Japan demo flights. However, operating expenses increased by 16.6% sequentially in Q4, reaching $238 million. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $154 million and a GAAP net loss of $122 million.
Cash usage for Q4 totaled $157 million, up from $147 million in Q3. Joby intends to spend $340 million to $370 million in cash during the first half of 2026, excluding a $33 million facility purchase.
This explains JPMorgan’s cautious stance, as the company’s near-term prospects hinge on execution, particularly with commercialization still ramping up. Besides JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank also trimmed JOBY’s price target to $6 from $7 with a “Sell” rating.
While Wall Street is cautious, Cathie Wood is leaning in. Recently, Ark Invest purchased approximately $7.6 million worth of Joby Aviation shares, reinforcing Wood’s long-term bet on disruptive transportation platforms. JOBY now make up 1.7% of the Ark Autonomous Tech & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) and 2.8% of the Ark Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX).
Wood has consistently backed disruptive, long-term innovation plays, particularly those focused on transportation change and electrification.
Joby now has its first FAA-compliant aircraft ready for flight and has passed all Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) testing. It also improved its FAA Stage Four certification progress by 18 points, putting it on track for the fifth and final stage of type certification.
The company’s commercial plans are accelerating at a rapid pace. It intends to carry its first passengers in Dubai this year as part of a six-year exclusive deal. Joby was also chosen as part of the White House-backed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which allows for early operations in up to 10 U.S. states, including Florida, Texas, New York, and Arizona. Joby expects to start flying within 90 days of finalizing agreements.
To meet this massive demand, Joby has agreed to buy a 728,000-square-foot production facility in Dayton, Ohio, with plans to expand to four aircraft per month by 2027. The company completed the fourth quarter with $1.4 billion in cash and short-term assets, allowing it to fund certification and manufacturing ramp. Joby’s strategic partnerships with Uber (UBER), Delta Airlines (DAL), Blade Air, and a manufacturing alliance with Toyota (TM) could also help it achieve its commercialization goals.
Compared to Archer Aviation (ACHR), another eVTOL contender, Joby appears to be further ahead in certification and infrastructure planning, though Wall Street’s consensus ratings differ across the two.
While Archer Aviation has earned a “Moderate Buy” rating, Wall Street remains cautious of JOBY stock, rating it a “Hold.” Of the 11 analysts covering the stock, six rate it a “Hold” and three rate it a “Strong Sell.” On the bullish side, one says it is a “Strong Buy” and one recommends a “Moderate Buy.” The mean target price for JOBY is $11.94, which suggests upside potential of 17.5%. Plus, its high price estimate of $18 implies the stock can climb 77% over the next year.
Aligning with Wood’s strategy of long-term investing, her confidence in Joby hinges on first-mover advantage in certification, manufacturing scale, and regulatory partnerships and not on near-term cash burn.
JOBY stock has fallen nearly 25% year-to-date. JPMorgan sees rising cash burn, valuation risk, and near-term uncertainty. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood sees a potential generational shift in transportation.
The company is working toward FAA certification, expanding production capacity, commencing early U.S. operations with federal backing, and preparing for passenger service in Dubai. However, it remains capital-expensive, pre-profit, and dependent on regulatory execution. For investors, Joby Aviation represents a classic high-risk, high-reward innovation play.
On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com