Technically, both the E-mini S&P 500 and the E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures are on the bearish side of their respective 50-day moving averages. This could put traders in “sell the rally” mode, while opening the door to the possibility of a steep decline.
Is the Market Warming Up to a Cooler CPI?
Traders are treating today’s CPI as the main event, even with quirks that could muddle the read. Economists expect a 3.1% headline and 3.0% core print year over year, but the range feels wider than usual thanks to gaps in October data and the late start to November collection.
Some on the Street — like Interactive Brokers’ José Torres — think we could see 2.9% on both measures. A number like that would almost certainly spark a little year-end optimism, especially with expectations building for at least some Fed easing next year.
But others are pushing back on the idea that a tenth of a point is enough to turn the market. The uneven data collection has traders questioning how “clean” this release really is, and that’s one reason positioning feels tentative into the print.
Does a Messy Report Limit the Reaction?
Probably. Victoria Fernandez at Crossmark notes that even a softer CPI won’t fully resolve the broader uncertainty — inflation isn’t sliding toward 2%, growth signals are inconsistent, and the market is still missing key data, including delayed PCE and PPI reports.
That’s leaving investors trading the headline more than the trend, and no one is convinced today’s report settles anything. If anything, the market feels stuck between soft consumer conditions and aggressive earnings expectations for 2026, and traders aren’t sure which story deserves more weight.