Rise off Strong Support
The bullish reversal seen today established a higher swing low around potential dynamic support of the 200-Day MA, now at $3.19, and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.07. In addition, natural gas is on track to close above the downtrend line drawn from the recent trend high of $4.90, after closing below the line yesterday. The two key price levels are last week’s high of $3.10 for support and the most recent lower swing high from last week at $3.84.
Higher Swing Low Established
With a recent swing low, natural gas prices are likely to rise. A new higher swing low establishes a potential rising ABCD pattern. The initial target for that pattern is up at $4.08. That is where the two upswings of the pattern will match and therefore it identifies a potential resistance level. Since the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline from the March high is at $4.12, together with ABCD target, generates a potential resistance zone from around $4.08 to $4.12.
Close Above 20-Day MA, Lead to 50-Day MA
Below the recent swing high is potential resistance of the 50-Day MA, now at $3.63. Once the 20-Day line is reclaimed, the 50-Day line becomes the next upside target. A sustained breakout above the 50-Day MA puts the recent interim swing high of $3.84 in sight and a rally above that level will confirm a continuation of the advance from the April swing low.
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