The Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to extend losses on Friday and open lower, tracking mixed cues from global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,993 level, a discount of nearly 102 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 25,100 level.
The Sensex dropped 542.47 points, or 0.66%, to close at 82,184.17, while the Nifty 50 settled 157.80 points, or 0.63%, lower at 25,062.10.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on daily charts, and on intraday charts, a lower top formation is evident, which is largely negative.
“We are of the view that, although the intraday market texture appears weak, a fresh selloff is possible only after the levels of 82,000 are breached. Below these levels, Sensex could retest 81,700 – 81,500. Conversely, if the index moves above 83,200, a technical bounce back to 82,800 could occur. Further upside may continue, potentially lifting Sensex to 83,000,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty OI Data
On the derivatives front, the highest Call Open Interest (OI) for Nifty 50 is seen at the 25,100 strike, followed by 25,200, indicating potential resistance at these levels. On the Put side, the highest OI is placed at 25,000, followed by 24,900, highlighting strong support zones.
This OI setup suggests that the 25,000 – 25,200 range will be crucial for Nifty’s near-term directional move, with traders closely watching for a breakout or breakdown from this zone, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart, suggesting increasing selling pressure and potential short-term weakness.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart that engulfed the small positive candle of the previous session. Technically, this market action indicates formation of Bearish Engulfing type candle pattern. This is a negative indication. The bearish chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact and Thursday’s swing high of 25,246 could be a new lower top of the pattern. The immediate resistance of 25,250 remains active and Nifty 50 reversed down from near the hurdle on Thursday,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 is still weak, and the presence of strong overhead resistance and the formation of bearish pattern indicates chances of more weakness in the short term.
“A slide below 24,900 levels could possibly open some more weakness down to 24,500 levels in the near term,” Shetti said.
Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivative Research, SBI Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 has once again slipped below its 20-day EMA.
“On the daily chart, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle. Going ahead, the zone of 24,990 – 24,970 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 24,970 level, then the next crucial support is placed in the zone of 24,900 – 24,870. On the upside, the zone of 25,130 – 25,150 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index,” Shah said.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the Nifty 50 formed a notable candlestick pattern at the daily time frame, resembling a ‘sandwich’ formation.
“Based on the current momentum, the 25,000 level will remain a crucial range to monitor and could serve as a support or make-or-break point for market movements. Considering these aspects, we can expect Nifty 50 to find support between 25,000 and 24,870, and meet resistance near 25,180 and 25,280 in today’s trading session,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 144.40 points, or 0.25%, lower at 57,066.05 on Thursday, forming a red candle on the daily chart.
“Bank Nifty index continues to hover above its 50-day simple moving average, but open and high remain the same in the daily chart, which indicates hesitation at higher levels and a lack of strong directional momentum. The daily RSI stands at 54, marginally below its signal line at 56, reflecting a pause in upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in the negative territory with no crossover yet, suggesting trend exhaustion rather than active strength,” said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
According to him, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is seen near the super trend level at 55,750, while on the upside, 57,300 continues to remain a stiff barrier, and a close above it would be essential to unlock further upside toward 57,500 and 57,700.
“Unless the index closes firmly above the resistance zone, it is likely to remain range-bound with a slight negative tilt,” Mehra added.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd. said that the Bank Nifty formed a red candle on the daily scale, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
“For a fresh upmove, the index must sustain above the 57,300 – 57,320 zone, while on the downside, immediate support is seen at 56,550, where the 34-DEMA is placed, followed by 56,200. Hence, short-term traders are advised to wait for a confirmed breakout above 57,320,” said Yedve.
Bajaj Broking Research believes immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed at 56,800, followed by a stronger demand zone near 56,500. On the upside, resistance is capped at 57,350, with the next supply barrier seen around 57,500.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.