POLAND – 2025/09/07: In this photo illustration, the Oracle Corporation logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Piotr Swat/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
Oracle’s meteoric rise continues to defy expectations. With a 30% surge in extended trading following its latest earnings and a cumulative 3x gain since early 2023, the enterprise software giant is rewriting the playbook for cloud transformation. But here’s the million-dollar question: Can Oracle realistically triple again from current levels to reach $900 per share?
The numbers suggest it’s not just possible—it might be inevitable.
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The Growth Engines: What Could Drive Another 3x Rally?
The $455 Billion RPO Revelation
Oracle just dropped a bombshell that caught even the most bullish analysts off guard. The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) exploded 359% year-over-year to $455 billion from the previous quarter’s $138 billion figure.
What does this actually mean?
Think of RPO as Oracle’s locked-in revenue pipeline—contracts already signed and sealed, just waiting to be delivered. This isn’t wishful thinking or ambitious projections; it’s money already committed by customers.
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The Five-Year Revenue Roadmap
Oracle didn’t just report numbers—they laid out a clear trajectory for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue that reads like a growth investor’s dream:
- 2025: $18 billion (77% growth)
- 2027: $32 billion
- 2028: $73 billion
- 2029: $114 billion
- 2030: $144 billion
Here’s what makes them credible: most of this revenue is already baked into the reported RPO. Oracle isn’t gambling on future demand—they’re simply executing on contracts already in hand.
The AI and Cloud Infrastructure Boom
Why is everyone suddenly throwing money at Oracle’s cloud? The AI revolution requires massive computational infrastructure, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) has positioned itself as a premier destination for AI workloads. As companies race to implement AI solutions, they need reliable, scalable cloud platforms—something that Oracle provides.
The timing couldn’t be better. While competitors face capacity constraints and pricing pressures, Oracle is expanding aggressively and capturing market share in the highest-growth segments.
The Valuation Math: Getting to $900
Let’s break down the path to a $900 stock price with simple, conservative assumptions:
Current Snapshot:
- LTM revenues: $59 billion
- 2030 revenue forecast: $200 billion
- Current trailing adjusted net income margin: 30%
- Current P/E ratio: 52x (based on trailing adjusted earnings)
The 2030 Projection:
Assuming Oracle maintains its operational leverage and margins improve modestly with cloud scale:
- 2030 EPS estimate: $23
- Target P/E multiple: 40x (down from current 52x, reflecting multiple compression as the cloud business matures)
- Price target: 40 × $23 = $920
From today’s levels, that represents a roughly 3x upside.
Is a 40x P/E reasonable for 2030? For a company growing cloud revenue at a projected 34% average annual rate with locked-in contracts extending years into the future, a 40x multiple seems conservative, especially in a market that regularly assigns higher multiples to companies with less predictable growth. Note that tech stocks like Microsoft and Amazon currently trade at 35-40 times trailing earnings. Look at Oracle’s Valuation Ratios for more details.
Risks to Consider
No investment thesis is complete without acknowledging potential headwinds. Oracle faces several challenges that could derail this optimistic scenario. Competition intensifies as cloud becomes table stakes. Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud aren’t sitting idle. They have deeper pockets and broader ecosystems. Oracle’s advantage in AI infrastructure could erode if competitors aggressively price or innovate their way back into contention.
Economic headwinds could pressure enterprise spending, and companies might delay cloud migrations or renegotiate contracts. While Oracle’s RPO provides some insulation, large enterprise deals can still be postponed or downsized during tough times.
Execution risk on this massive scale-up. Growing from $59 billion to $200 billion in annual revenue requires flawless execution across hiring, infrastructure buildout, and customer delivery. Any stumbles could shake confidence in these ambitious projections.
Multiple compressions could be more severe than expected. As Oracle matures from a high-growth story to a large-cap dividend play, the market might assign lower multiples than our 40x assumption, particularly if interest rates remain elevated.
Our separate analysis focusing on the downside risk for Oracle offers more details.
The Bottom Line
Oracle’s latest results represent more than just a good quarter—they signal a fundamental shift in the company’s trajectory and market position. With $455 billion in locked-in future revenue and a clear path to $200 billion in annual sales by 2030, the case for $900 per share is surprisingly straightforward.
That said, there always remains a meaningful risk when investing in a single, or just a handful of stocks. Consider the Trefis High-Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
So is this a slam dunk? Not quite. Execution risks are real, competition is fierce, and market conditions can change rapidly. But for investors willing to bet on Oracle’s ability to capitalize on the AI-driven cloud boom, the risk-reward equation looks compelling.
The 30% after-hours pop might actually be the conservative reaction. When a company provides this level of revenue visibility with this kind of growth trajectory, a 3x move over the next four to five years starts looking less like speculation and more like inevitability.
The question isn’t whether Oracle can reach $900—it’s whether investors have the patience to ride the journey.