Standard Chartered just cut its Bitcoin 2026 forecast in half—from $300,000 to $150,000. The revised Standard Chartered Bitcoin forecast—after spending 2024 and early 2025 calling for moonshots—expects BTC to gain 68% instead of 237% over the next year.
The new projection stems from institutional Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) buying being slower than expected. Capital is arriving through Bitcoin ETF inflows but on measured allocation after the initial surge. The revised Standard Chartered Bitcoin prediction marks a change in tempo rather than direction—the bank’s long-term Bitcoin $500K target remains but has been pushed to 2030, reflecting institutional reality rather than weakening conviction.
As BTC keeps holding the key $85K support heading into 2026, the question now centers on how steadily Bitcoin compounds as supply tightens and institutions build exposure over time.
Why Standard Chartered Cut Bitcoin Forecast: Institutional Flows Slowing
Standard Chartered’s decision to cut its Bitcoin forecast reflects timing. The original $300,000 target relied on rapid institutional deployment, which hasn’t materialized.
Bitcoin ETFs now hold approximately $124 billion, with institutions making up roughly a quarter of that base. These Bitcoin ETF flows show commitment and patience as pension funds, endowments, and sovereign allocators move through approval cycles that span quarters and years. They build exposure steadily and avoid concentrated entry points.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, has been clear on this shift in Bitcoin ETF flows. He stated that institutional committees don’t chase momentum but rather rebalance methodically. The reality smooths price action and dampens the sharp, vertical moves that powered earlier cycle models.
The forecast cut reflects a longer runway. Bitcoin’s path is becoming slower, broader, and more deliberate as institutional money replaces speculative excess.
The Standard Chartered $150K Bitcoin Forecast Still Signals Strength
Standard Chartered’s revised $150,000 Bitcoin target for 2026 maintains conviction. From current levels near $89,000, it signals a gain of more than 68% and a market value measured in trillions.
The change reflects pacing. Bitcoin has moved past speculative bursts and into a phase shaped by steady institutional positioning. Price growth isn’t marred by speculation or hypes anymore, instead, it follows allocation schedules
The Standard Chartered revised Bitcoin forecast maintains institutional conviction despite the timeline extension. The bank highlighted that large investors are building positions slowly and methodically—they’re buying what they can get without pushing prices higher. The shift smooths volatility while preserving upside potential.
Despite the bank’s revised BTC price projection, the long-term target hasn’t changed. Standard Chartered still expects Bitcoin to hit $500,000—just by 2030 instead of 2026. Pushing that target out signals confidence in direction even as the timeline extends.
In that light, $150,000 represents a milestone in Bitcoin’s transition into a mature financial asset.
Is Standard Chartered’s Revised 2026 Bitcoin Forecast Realistic?
Bitcoin’s revised outlook centers on structure rather than excitement. The shift reflects how supply, institutions, and market behavior are reshaping price action heading into 2026.
Bitcoin Supply Squeeze Still Supports Standard Chartered’s $150K Target
Bitcoin’s supply mechanics haven’t softened. New issuance keeps shrinking, while long-term holders control more coins each quarter. ETFs remove supply from circulation and rarely return it to the market. Even with slower inflows, fewer coins are available for sale.
The imbalance supports higher price floors and reduces the risk of deep drawdowns. This supply dynamic supports Standard Chartered’s $150K Bitcoin forecast even as the timeline extends. Scarcity is no longer theoretical—it shows up in day-to-day liquidity.
Institutional Bitcoin Buying Creates Lower Volatility
Bitcoin ETF inflows show the asset is behaving more like infrastructure, validating Standard Chartered’s institutional-driven forecast model. Corrections attract allocation rather than fear. With institutions holding a growing share of supply, volatility shifts from emotional swings to measured rebalancing. As the market continues to move, the tone seems steadier and more deliberate.
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Price Scenarios for 2026
Bitcoin enters 2026 at a crossroads. Institutional adoption, macro policy, and liquidity conditions will shape outcomes. The year centers on how capital allocates under pressure rather than hype-driven momentum.
Bull Case: Bitcoin Hits $180K-$210K if Institutional Buying Accelerates
The bullish case sees Bitcoin dipping one last time in early 2026—testing $75,000-$80,000 as late-cycle tightening shakes out weak hands. The Fed could pivot faster than expected, cutting rates aggressively as risk appetite rebounds. Then if one or two major allocations land—a sovereign wealth fund or a state pension—the sentiment could flip overnight.
By late Q1 2026, Bitcoin could clear $120,000 and accelerate through $150,000 without looking back. By year-end, the supply squeeze could drive the BTC price into the $180,000-$210,000 range. This scenario would validate Standard Chartered’s long-term conviction, although exceeding it by a little margin.
Base Case: Bitcoin Reaches $145K-$155K on Steady ETF Flows
The base case sees Bitcoin completing one more flush in early 2026—testing $75,000. If institutional buying steadies and ETF inflows keep growing, Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by March 2026, retesting the prior $126,000 high by mid-year.
Bitcoin could then grind higher as allocation cycles unfold. This scenario sees Bitcoin ending 2026 near $145,000-$155,000, aligning with Standard Chartered’s revised target.
Bear Case: Bitcoin Consolidates At $100K-$120K Despite ETF Demand
The bearish view assumes macro stress dominates 2026. The Fed could stay hawkish longer than markets expect, causing rates to remain restrictive, and slowing growth. Bitcoin would dip below $80,000 under this scenario, sliding toward $70,000-$75,000 as momentum traders exit and weak corporate holders reduce exposure.
If macro conditions improve, Bitcoin could slowly recover into the $90,000-$100,000 range by mid-year. By December 2026, the BTC price could stabilize around $100,000-$120,000, reflecting resilience without acceleration.