This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Standard Chartered analysts have again recalibrated their outlook on Bitcoin (BTC-USD), arguing that the recent drawdown in digital assets may not be finished yet. In a note released Thursday, Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, warned that further price capitulation could unfold in the coming months, with Bitcoin potentially sliding toward $50,000 before stabilizing. The bank now projects Bitcoin will end 2026 at $100,000, down from a prior $150,000 target and sharply lower than the $300,000 forecast it held in December. Bitcoin was trading around $67,939 in New York on Thursday morning, following a volatile stretch that began with the October market collapse.
Kendrick framed the downgrade against persistent ETF outflows and a more complex macro setup. Since the Oct. 10 selloff, nearly $8 billion has been pulled from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while ETF holdings have fallen by almost 100,000 tokens from their Oct. 10 peak. The average ETF buyer entered at roughly $90,000, suggesting many holders are now sitting on losses. At the same time, Kendrick noted that although the US economy may be softening, markets expect no additional rate cuts until Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair later this year, a backdrop that could restrain incremental inflows into crypto assets.
The bank also trimmed its Ether outlook, cutting its end-2026 target to $4,000 from $7,500, with Kendrick indicating the token could fall to around $1,400 before rebounding later in the year. Ether was trading below $2,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin has declined more than 40% from its October peak near $127,000, and the broader crypto market has lost almost $2 trillion in value over the same period, according to CoinGecko. Even so, Kendrick characterized the current selloff as less extreme than previous cycles and noted that no digital asset platforms have collapsed, suggesting the market structure may be maturing despite ongoing volatility.