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According to Rothschild & Co. Redburn, American Airlines is most at risk with rising jet fuel costs.
As noted by the firm, “Putting all this together, we see downside risk to estimates as higher jet fuel prices are incorporated into our forecasts. With the greatest sensitivity to fuel prices, we see most risk for American and now forecast negative EPS this year,” as quoted by CNBC. The firm now has a neutral rating on the AAL stock from a buy rating.
With the U.S.-Iran war showing no signs of cooling, oil prices are gushing higher. Last checked, oil was up $2.33 a barrel at $77.0w, which is weighing heavily on markets.
The S&P 500 is down about 0.27%, or by 18 points. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 0.16%, or by $1.13. The Dow is down 0.52%, or by 255 points. The Nasdaq is down 0.31%, or by 87 points. Gold is down by $2.25 at $5,121. Bitcoin is down by $204 at $72,525.
With Neither Side Backing Down, Oil could test $100
At the moment, neither side is backing off.
Iran has made it clear there won’t be any negotiations or surrender. President Trump hasn’t ruled out boots on the ground. Unfortunately, until we see signs of cooling tensions, oil prices could gush higher, especially with the Strait of Hormuz choked off.
A lengthy disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices up $40 to $80 a barrel, according to some estimates. If the war goes on for more than three weeks, it could easily exhaust storage capacities, oil could gush to $120. Right now, according to President Trump, the war will likely last five weeks, but could continue until objectives are met.
As we noted yesterday, that news could force oil stocks, like Exxon and Chevron to higher highs, along with energy ETFs such as the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP).
Drone Stocks could soar to higher highs
Drones are playing a substantial role in the war.
As noted by CNBC, “Investors suspect widening geopolitical conflict will boost demand for drone systems, putting attention on a sector that’s trading at an attractive valuation.”
“Unmanned systems have been a key driver of the growing defense market, given their heavy use in the Ukraine-Russia war that began in 2022. Artificial intelligence has accelerated the Pentagon’s push for unmanned systems, as the technology has enabled the development of low-cost drones at scale. Also important are counter-drone systems that can defend against attacks, according to BTIG analyst Andre Madrid,” they added.
Fueling momentum, analysts at Oppenheimer forecast a $400 billon drone market with surging defense spending. As noted by CNBC, “Oppenheimer said rising global defense spending and rapid advances in autonomous systems are reshaping modern warfare and potentially stepping over into commercial markets.”
That could have a substantial impact on stocks, such as Red Cat Holdings, Ondas Holdings, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, and Draganfly.
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