Depending on how things shake out over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 could be on the cusp of a rare accomplishment: tallying a total return greater than 25% in two consecutive calendar years.
Even if it misses this milestone, the index is still poised to gain 20% or more for a second year in a row, according to FactSet data. Barring a sharp selloff between now and Dec. 31, this would be the first time since the dot-com era that the S&P 500 has appreciated so strongly for two straight years.
With several sentiment gauges pointing to unbridled optimism at the end of what has been a spectacular calendar year for stocks, it seems many investors are hoping that the streak of strong returns will continue in 2025, as President-elect Donald Trump has promised a suite of pro-growth policies like corporate tax cuts and deregulation.
But investors shouldn’t get too excited, at least if history is any guide.