Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 180 points; key levels Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised to open lower on Monday as escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude prices higher and triggered a flight to safe havens, weighing on overall market sentiment. Oil prices surged to their highest level in months as escalating Iran–Israel hostilities stoked concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 179.60 points, or 0.71 per cent, down at 25,159, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares slid on Monday as military conflict in the Middle East looked set to last weeks. Hang Seng dropped more than 2 per cent, while Nikkei and KOSPI dropped more than a per cent each.

Medium-term impact on the market will depend on how long the conflict will last. After crippling Iran, US and Israel may make a strategic withdrawal. The market will react very negatively. In a weak market, upstream oil companies and defense stocks will do well, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade flows and 20 per cent of its liquefied natural gas. Brent jumped 4.5 per cent to $76.07 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while US crude climbed 3.9 per cent to $69.59 per barrel. Gold rose 1 per cent to $5,327 an ounce .

All three major US indices ended decisively lower and posted steep weekly declines as financial and tech stocks were hit hard by persistent investor worries on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 521.28 points, or 1.05 per cent, to 48,977.92, the S&P 500 lost 29.98 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 6,878.88 and the Nasdaq Composite gell 210.17 points, or 0.92 per cent, to 22,668.21.

The euro slid and the dollar jumped on Monday as investors sought safety after the US and Israel bombed Iran. The Indian rupee is expected to fall past the 91 per dollar mark on Monday, risking protracted conflict in the Middle East, which sapped risk appetite and sparked a sharp rise in oil prices.

Given persistent geopolitical risks and sector-specific volatility, a cautious and selective investment approach is advisable, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Participants should focus on fundamentally strong large-cap companies and sectors with relatively stable earnings visibility. Exposure to export-oriented IT stocks may remain volatile in the near term”

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 7,536.36 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 12,292.81 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pumped Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities in February 2026, highest inflow in 17 months.

While primary issuances have continued to attract steady foreign participation over the past several quarters, secondary market flows have remained uneven and, at times, decisively bearish, said  Varun Gupta, CEO, Groww Mutual Fund. “Elevated valuations, uncertainty around trade negotiations, and an earnings slowdown had kept incremental allocations cautious.”
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Nifty50 has breached its critical 25,300 support and the 200-day EMA, signaling a bearish shift in short-term momentum. For the coming week, the 25000 psychological mark stands as the make-or-break level and a breakdown here could drag prices toward the 24,800 area, said Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services.

“On the upside, 25,350 and 25,600 now act as stiff hurdles. Strategy remains ‘sell on rises’ until the index decisively reclaims 25,600. Expect continued volatility as the market searches for a stable bottom,” he said.

Nifty has slipped below the 200 DMA, confirming weakness which might stay here for a bit longer. The RSI indicator has turned very bearish, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. “Over the short term, the index might remain under selling pressure. Support on the lower end is placed at 25,000 / 24,750. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,370.”

The immediate and critical support zone for Nifty50 lies at 25,100–25,000, with the 25,000 mark acting as a key psychological level. A clear breakdown below this level may intensify selling pressure and drag the index toward 24,800–24,600, said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

“On the upside, the 25,350–25,500 band now acts as a key resistance area, as earlier support has turned into a barrier; a sustained move above this range is essential for near-term stabilization. Overall, the downside bias remains intact unless the index posts a decisive close above the 25,300–25,400 region,” he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

The 60,800–60,700 range will continue to serve as a crucial support base for Nifty Bank. A sustained hold above this zone will maintain the positive undertone and prevent a deeper corrective move. On the upside, the region between 61,400–61,500 is expected to act as a significant resistance band, where supply pressure has previously capped upward momentum, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

“A breakout above 61,500, especially with strong volumes and a decisive close, is likely to trigger a sharp upward acceleration. If the index successfully surpasses this hurdle, it could pave the way for a near-term rally toward the 62000 mark, followed by a potential extension toward 62,500 in the short term,” he said.

Bank Nifty formed a bearish candle with a lower high and a lower low signaling profit booking at higher levels. Immediate support is seen at 60,200-60,000 levels being the confluence of the 50 days EMA and the key retracement of the previous up move, said Bajaj Broking.

“Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues. In the near-term index is likely to trade in the range of 60,000-61,750. A decisive move beyond this range could trigger fresh directional momentum,” he said.