Indian benchmark indices are likely to open little changed on Tuesday amid mixed global cues led by the rising confusion over Trump tariff threats. However, weak quarterly earnings by India Inc is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Softer US dollar and muted crude oil prices may be positive.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 2.50 points, or 0.15 per cent, higher at 25,186, hinting at a flat start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian stock marched higher in early trade. Nikkei and KOSPI gained up to 0.10 per cent, while Hang Seng was up 0.70 per cent for the day.
“We expect the market to remain in consolidation phase, awaiting updates on the India-US trade deal, while stock-specific action could be seen on the back of quarterly earnings announcements,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Wall Street stocks closed marginally up on Monday as investors sidestepped any meaningful moves following US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 88.14 points, or 0.20 per cent, to 44,459.65, the S&P 500 gained 8.81 points, or 0.14 per cent, at 6,268.56 and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 54.80 points, or 0.27 per cent, to 20,640.33.
The dollar hovered near a three-week high versus major peers on Tuesday as traders awaited the release of US inflation data later in the day that could provide clues on the path for monetary policy. The dollar index stood at 98.104, just below the overnight peak of 98.136, the highest since June 25.
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,614.32 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,787.68 crore on a net-net basis.
Investors remain watchful of developments related to tariffs and their potential impact on global markets, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Amid this mixed environment, we continue to see selective opportunities across sectors. Hence, participants should maintain a focus on stock selection and risk management,” he added.
Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as the market digested US President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war and avoid sanctions on buyers of its oil, while worries continued to linger over Trump’s trade tariffs. Brent crude futures fell 5 cents to $69.16 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell to $66.89, down 9 cents.
The week ahead could see continued volatility amid global cues, earnings reports, and foreign fund flows. While weakness in IT may persist, sectoral rotation and stock-specific action in defensives and broader markets could lend some support, said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital.
Nifty & Sensex outlook
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities believes that the market has completed one leg of correction, and the 50-day SMA at 25,000/82,000 is likely to act as a key support zone for traders. Above this level, a technical bounce back up to the 20-day SMA, or approximately 25,250–25,300 / 82,500–82,800, could be expected, he noted.
The short-term trend of Nifty continues to be weak and some more consolidation with range-bound action is likely in the coming sessions, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “Crucial lower supports around 25000-24900 and there is a probability of upside bounce from the lower supports. Immediate resistance to be watched at 25200,” he said.
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank index is trading at a technically sensitive juncture, with the 56,600 region serving as a crucial near-term support. A clear breakdown below this zone could accelerate downside momentum, opening the path toward the 56,000 mark, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities “The formation of a swing high near 57,370 reinforces this zone as a strong resistance area, with sellers actively defending higher levels,” he said.
Nifty Bank formed a doji candle with long shadows in either direction signaling consolidation amid stock specific action. The index on expected lines in the last seven sessions is seen consolidating in the range 56,400-57,600, said Bajaj Broking. “We expect the index to extend the same and only a move below 56,400 will signal an extension of corrective decline towards 56,000-55,500.”
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