This Bitcoin Chart Signal Has 91% Accuracy, But Here's Why It Could Be Different This Time

A closely watched Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) technical pattern has delivered a strong track record over the past four years —but prominent analyst Trader Mayne urges caution.

What Happened: In his latest podcast, Mayne highlighted the weekly Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) as one of Bitcoin’s most reliable signals since 2021, posting a reported 91% success rate.

An SFP forms when price briefly breaks a key swing high or low to capture liquidity, then reverses and closes back inside the prior range. This move often traps late traders and has historically marked major tops or bottoms.

Since March 2021, Bitcoin has printed 22 weekly SFPs.

Of those, 20 were followed by moves of more than 10% in the opposite direction, and 16 coincided with major market turning points, including the 2021 cycle peak and the 2022 bear-market low.

Mayne stressed that execution is critical. Traders must first identify a clear swing level, wait for the weekly close to confirm the failure, then enter on the following candle with stops placed beyond the wick.

Also Read: Raoul Pal: Bitcoin To Benefit From Up To $8 Trillion In Liquidity Added In 2026

What’s Next: For now, Mayne said Bitcoin remains stuck in a neutral zone. A high-probability bullish setup would require a sweep below recent lows near $85,000 or lower, followed by a weekly close back above that level. Without that confirmation, no decisive trend signal is active.

Crypto trader PostyXBT echoed the uncertainty, outlining two competing macro scenarios:

• Bullish case: Bitcoin forms a higher-timeframe higher low after a roughly 35% correction, a typical shakeout during bull cycles.
• Bearish case: Price continues to show weakness despite the pullback, raising the risk that the four-year cycle has already peaked.

PostyXBT said it remains difficult to turn meaningfully bullish until Bitcoin reclaims the $98,000–$100,000 zone.

Until then, the current move could still prove to be a dead-cat bounce or a bearish retest.

While his long-term outlook remains constructive, he cautioned that Q1–Q2 2026 will stay uncertain without clearer higher-timeframe confirmation.

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