U.S. stock futures edged higher on Monday, September 8, as investors turned their attention to a crucial week for inflation readings. With the Federal Reserve entering its pre-meeting “blackout period,” traders are leaning on upcoming data to guide expectations for interest rate cuts.
By early morning trade, Dow Jones futures climbed 63 points (+0.14%), S&P 500 futures added 0.19% (+12.5 points), and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.34% (+80.5 points).
Despite a pullback on Friday, all three major indexes remain close to record highs, with the S&P 500 just 0.8% below its latest peak.
Fed rate cut bets grow after weak jobs report
Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls report showed hiring slowed sharply in August, sending the unemployment rate to its highest since 2021.
The data solidified bets that the Fed will cut rates at its September 17 meeting, with traders pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-bps cut. Some now even see a 50-bps move as possible.
Brokerages have also adjusted their calls: Barclays now expects three rate cuts this year, while Standard Chartered is forecasting a larger half-point cut in September, doubling its previous projection.
Inflation in focus this week
The spotlight now shifts to producer price index (PPI) data due Wednesday and the consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday. Together, these will test whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are fueling inflation and shaping the Fed’s next move. Other key releases include a BLS payrolls benchmark revision and a University of Michigan sentiment survey.
September’s weak seasonality vs. Fed support
Historically, September is the toughest month for U.S. equities — the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% decline since 2000. Yet history also shows that when the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, September has often turned positive.
In fact, the index rose in 1995, 2007, 2019, and 2024 under similar conditions.
This year, analysts are divided. UBS strategist Aaron Nordvik cautioned that “inflation is still a hindrance to the Fed cutting as aggressively as may be needed,” while others argue that bearish seasonality is overstated without recessionary shocks.
Premarket movers: Robinhood, Tesla, AppLovin
- Robinhood (HOOD) jumped 7% after being added to the S&P 500, replacing Caesars Entertainment.
- AppLovin (APP) surged 7.7% on the same S&P inclusion news.
- Tesla (TSLA) rose over 1% as its board proposed a new pay package for Elon Musk potentially worth $1 trillion over the next decade, even as U.S. EV market share slipped to its lowest since 2017.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) slipped 1% alongside a dip in Bitcoin prices back near $111,500.
On the Dow front, early ETF tracking data showed:
- Salesforce (+2.8%), Home Depot (+1.8%), and UnitedHealth (+1.6%) leading the gainers.
- American Express (-1.3%), McDonald’s (-0.8%), and Disney (-0.8%) were among the laggards.
What about gold and safe-haven demand?
If stocks are betting on a Fed cut, gold is already cashing in. The metal is trading near $3,588 per ounce, hovering close to record highs. On a year-to-date basis, gold has soared 37%, its best run in decades.
For retail investors, the GLD ETF was priced around $331.05 (+1.3%), mirroring spot gold’s momentum.
Gold’s appeal is twofold: it benefits from a weaker dollar and lower yields, but it also attracts buyers when growth risks rise. The latest jobs miss has amplified both conditions at once.
How are Treasury yields reacting?
Bond markets tell a consistent story. The two-year Treasury yield slipped to 3.53%, near five-month lows, while ten-year yields also retreated. Lower yields confirm the view that traders see policy easing ahead.
For equities, falling yields are a tailwind — especially for rate-sensitive tech stocks, which is why Nasdaq futures outpaced the Dow. But yields this low also hint at recessionary fears lingering in the background.
Global and commodity watch
- Asian stocks pushed higher after Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, with the Nikkei 225 surging 1.45%.
- Oil prices rose about 1.5%, as renewed sanctions risks on Russian crude overshadowed OPEC+ supply expansion plans.
U.S. stock futures are ticking higher to kick off the week, but inflation data will be the real test. Wall Street is bracing for PPI (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday) data, both of which could reset expectations for how aggressively the Fed moves.
- If inflation cools further, rate-cut bets solidify, giving equities more room to climb.
- If inflation surprises on the upside, futures gains could vanish quickly, as the Fed would be pressured to hold steady.
Energy markets also bear watching. Oil edged higher after OPEC+ confirmed a production increase, a move that could re-inject price pressures into the inflation debate.