On the surface, the crypto market appears strong. Despite ongoing global tensions, Bitcoin has behaved like a safe-haven asset, with steady price action supporting confidence.
However, beneath that strength, something unusual is unfolding.
Data from Alphractal showed that while new retail and institutional capital are actively trading, coins held for more than three years have almost stopped moving.
The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric has fallen to historic lows, even on a 90-day average, indicating that long-term holders are neither selling nor reacting to market swings.
If looked at deeply, this phase showed that Bitcoin had been going through supply exhaustion rather than simple hesitation.
What are other on-metrics hinting at?
The Age Consumed metric shows that older holders were quiet, but as prices surged toward local highs in late November, that calm broke sharply.
Additionally, the 90-day Dormant Circulation also spiked sharply, showing that long-term holders used the rally to exit.
Data from Glassnode confirms that since December 2025, the 90-day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD-90) has dropped to very low levels.
In fact, as price drifted toward the $70,000 region in February 2026, there seems to be a strange divergence wherein price was weakening, but CDD-90 was not rising.
Normally, older holders react during stress. This time, they are not.
That suggests most large-scale selling already happened in November, and the remaining holders are deeply committed and inactive.
Still, low CDD-90 is not automatically bullish. If long-term holders are not selling, they are also not actively providing strong buy-side support.
Mixed retail sentiments
Yet despite this, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin [BTC] remains intact, as noted by Ex JP Morgan employee, Aditya Singhania, who said,
“There is absolutely zero panic in Bitcoin! Every one is in panic and expecting major fall tomorrow. Market might positively surprise most people. If there was real panic it would have been first seen in crypto market.”
However, not everyone shares the same sentiment as noted by forever Bitcoin critic, Peter Schiff, who said,
What’s ahead?
Historically, Bitcoin often finds a true bottom near its Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost basis, now around $38,900. With price still roughly 66% above that level, the market has not seen the deep reset typical of past bear cycles.
Current selling appears to be driven mainly by short-term holders, while long-term investors remain steady, a sign of pressure, but not panic.
At the same time, an early whale tracked by Lookonchain recently sold 500 BTC worth about $47.77 million from a 5,000 BTC stash bought near $332 years ago.
Overall, Bitcoin in 2026 feels like two markets at once. On one side are long-term holders who remain inactive and unmoved by volatility.
On the other hand are early whales who are slowly turning paper gains into real-world wealth. All in all, unless global economic conditions worsen sharply, the most likely outcome is a long period of sideways movement rather than a dramatic crash or breakout.
Final Summary
- The November spike in dormant circulation suggests major selling already happened during the rally.
- With OGs inactive, the market appears to be digesting prior distribution rather than entering fresh capitulation.