Will Strong Market Momentum Help Bank Of New York Mellon Stock Beat Earnings?

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Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) is scheduled to announce its earnings around Tuesday, July 15, 2025. The consensus for earnings is set at approximately $1.75 per share, reflecting an increase of about 16% from the previous year, while revenues are anticipated to grow by nearly 5%. Growth is expected to be fueled by a rise in assets under custody and administration, which exceeded $53 trillion in the last quarter, along with continuing cost reductions and a growing emphasis on higher-margin businesses. Revenue from fees should benefit from recent market developments. The bank generally earns fees as a percentage of assets under custody, and this income is likely to rise due to the acquisition of new clients. The S&P 500 fell below 5,000 in early April because of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on trading partners, but it rebounded by nearly 25% by the end of June. BNY has previously noted that a 5% shift in equity markets corresponds to about $70 million in fees. The strong market momentum is likely to have been advantageous for the company.

The company currently holds a market capitalization of $67 billion. Over the last twelve months, revenue amounted to $19 billion, while net income was recorded at $4.7 billion. That being said, if you are looking for gains with less volatility than single stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – it has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Bank of New York Mellon’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, showing 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns. In total, positive 1D returns occurred about 60% of the time.
• Significantly, this percentage rises to 83% when considering data for the past 3 years instead of 5.
• The median for the 12 positive returns is 3.9%, while the median for the 8 negative returns is -2.1%

Additional information on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is consolidated along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky approach (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to evaluate the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the strongest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves as “long” for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Please note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), producing strong returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a smoother journey than a single stock like Bank of New York Mellon, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has beaten the S&P and achieved over 91% returns since its inception.

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