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HPE Q3 Earnings: Traders Eye 61% Odds Of A Post-Results Rise

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE: HPE) is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, with analysts anticipating earnings of 41 cents per share and $8.85 billion in revenue. This would constitute a 5% year-over-year increase in diluted earnings and a 15% rise in sales compared to the previous year’s numbers of 39 cents per share and $7.67 billion in revenue. Historically, HPE stock has reacted positively to earnings announcements. In the past five years, the stock has delivered a favorable one-day return in 61% of cases following the results, achieving a median gain of 3.1% and a maximum single-day surge of 11%.

The company currently holds a market capitalization of $29 Billion. Over the last twelve months, revenue amounted to $32 Billion, and it reported operational profitability with $2.2 Billion in operating profits and $1.5 Billion in net income. Much will depend on how Q3 results align with consensus forecasts, but history indicates that event-driven traders might find opportunities in the stock’s earnings reactions. Additionally, check SoundHound AI: After 6x Gains, What’s Next For SOUN Stock?

HPE finalized its $14 Billion acquisition of Juniper Networks on July 2, 2025. This deal established an AI-driven networking division under the leadership of former Juniper CEO Rami Rahim. To secure approval from the DOJ, HPE consented to divest its Instant On WLAN unit and license Juniper’s Mist AI software. National security issues, particularly in countering Huawei, played a fundamental role in the approval process.

For investors seeking a more stable path to growth, the Trefis High Quality portfolio provides a lower-volatility option. It has surpassed the S&P 500, yielding over 91% returns since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

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  • There have been 18 earnings data points recorded in the past five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 61% of the time.
  • Interestingly, this percentage rises to 70% if we examine data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • The median of the 11 positive returns is 3.1%, while the median of the 7 negative returns is -5.2%

Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A somewhat less risky strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is low) is to assess the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair that displays the highest correlation, and execute the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader could position themselves “long” for the next 5 days should the 1D post-earnings return be favorable. Presented here is correlation data based on both a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D denotes the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the stock’s reaction after earnings. Indeed, the pricing may begin even before the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock with the stock performance of peers who reported earnings just ahead of Hewlett Packard Enterprise. For an equitable comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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